Lucy

John

Clive

Inflation outlook and foodservice market update – July

The Consumer Prices Index rose by 3.4% in the 12 months to May 2025.

Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 4.4% in May, up from 3.4% in April representing the highest level of inflation seen since February 2024, when it was 5%. On a monthly basis prices rose by 0.7%, compared with a fall of 0.3% a year ago.

Market movers:

FISH & SEAFOOD

Native Flat Fish are returning to prime quality with several standout options. Lemon Sole, especially Cornish, will be in excellent condition from July onwards. Plaice is also fully in season, with North Sea bottom trawled options carrying an MCS 2 rating. Cornish Sole is in peak condition and is ideal for summer dishes.

Cod and Haddock are still under pressure with volatile pricing. Scottish and Icelandic fish are the main sources, though both are in limited supply. Icelandic vessels may tie up by late July. Coley prices have risen but still represent strong value, and are ideal for fishcakes, goujons, or pies. Hake supply is stable, but pricing reflects its increasing popularity.

DAIRY

Avian Influenza remains prevalent in the Egg market but as we approach the summer, it becomes less of a risk as the virus struggles to duplicate as easily in the warmer weather. However, because of bird flu throughout 2025, pricing remains higher than last year.

Milk and Cream production has increased 6% year-on-year, due to warmer weather throughout 2025 which has allowed cows out onto the fields earlier than in 2024. In the bulk cream market, values have remained under pressure due to increased milk production, reflecting the seasonal surplus and limited export momentum.

COFFEE

The Coffee market has been trading at historically high levels throughout 2025 and continues to face significant supply and pricing challenges. Both Arabica and Robusta remain close to record highs, mainly driven by ongoing weather issues in Brazil and Vietnam. The market remains highly unpredictable.

At the same time, producers are continuing to face rising costs across energy, packaging, transport, and labour, which adds further pressure to pricing. While consumer demand remains steady, there is an increasing shift towards value-driven products as prices move higher.

FRUIT & VEG

The UK and Europe is experiencing some high temperatures and the weather is likely to create some challenges, including on shelf-life, so we are reminding members to take extra care with kitchen protocols in the heat in order to minimise the impact on the produce. In some cases, the heat is bringing crops forward, which is good news in the short-term, but could lead to some issues further down the line. We will monitor this over the coming weeks.

There are Melon availability issues following poor weather conditions that ended the Central American season, however the transition to Spanish crop is underway.

The American Sweet Potato harvest is around 40% down on a standard year due to poor weather during the growing period, and this is likely to impact the market until August.

As we approach the end of the British Carrot season, we are starting to see some quality issues. Suppliers have recommended keeping carrots stored at as low a temperature as possible to maintain shelf life.

We are expecting some market shortages of Strawberries over the next couple of weeks, while we await the main season crop. The warmer weather is likely to help bring the crop on, but there are some size concessions over the next couple of weeks to help maintain availability.

We are maintaining a close watch on the Raspberry crop as the high temperatures could have a detrimental impact on availability. This is because very high temperatures can cause fruit production to slow down as the plants react to the heat.

This is one of the most challenging parts of the year for Blueberries with the gap between the Moroccan and British seasons causing some problems with
availability. This is not unusual for the time of year – additional fruit from Spain and Portugal will cover the gap.

New this month:

  • UK Blackberries
  • UK Gooseberries
  • UK Tenderstem Broccoli
  • UK Runner Beans
  • UK Purple Sprouting

Looking ahead:

  • Leeks
  • Parsnips
  • Girolles
  • Turkish Figs

MEAT

Deadweight Beef pricing is starting to soften but we’re not seeing this come through in pricing. Primal cuts are starting to stabilise, and we anticipate this to continue. The main challenge is for trim and processed products as prices are being maintained at current levels and, in some cases, still increasing. Demand is high for these products, driven by seasonal BBQ demand and the high deadweight prices, as consumers look to use cheaper products to counter the high pricing for beef.

Demand remains strong for UK Poultry domestically. The limited availability from the continent has forced consumers to purchase more from UK stock, increasing pricing. Reduced availability due to UK producers embracing the improved welfare standards of the Better Chicken commitment, has led to a 20% drop in bird availability in the UK.

Turkey prices haven’t reduced post-Christmas as they traditionally do. Producers were impacted by Avian Influenza (AI) challenges, and some are moving into chicken due to the better growth rate and ability to recover from AI quicker. This means there are less turkey producers and availability is tighter, both in the EU and UK, which is impacting pricing.

  • Top Tip #1: We recommend switching from Beef into more cost-effective options such as Poultry and Pork.
  • Top Tip #2: There is a significant carbon reduction when switching from Beef to Wild Venison, which is also a more price-stable solution.

UK KEY MARKET MOVERS (CPI)

The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation in the UK. Movements in CPI give a high-level overview of the key categories experiencing inflation. Below is a monthly snapshot of the top food commodity price inflation movements impacting the UK. The data is from Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Percentage change over 12 months:

FINAL WORD

Zero Procure continue to proactively mitigate availability issues and supply risk, putting solutions in place to reduce impact, such as product switches and recipe re-engineering.

When analysing the affects that inflation has on your businesses purchasing, it’s important to understand that inflation affects not only the price of goods, but also the quality and availability – this is something that our team of procurement experts can assess in detail, to ensure our members are always achieving the best outcomes in all areas.

Equally, we fully understand the challenges presented by the increase in Employer National Insurance Contributions and National Living Wage, along with reduction in business rates relief and increased water bills. Our team of experts are working closer than ever with our members to reduce their purchasing costs in attempt to lessen the impact of rising costs in other areas of the business.

To find out more about ways in which we can help save your business time and money, get in touch.

Sources: Foodbuy, Brakes, Dole.

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Birmingham, United Kingdom,
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