The last quarter has seen the CPI inflation measure in the UK rise from 2.0% in December 2024 to 2.8% in February 2025.

Overall the market was more volatile in the last quarter than in previous months. The heavy rain and flooding in parts of Spain continued to affect Fruit and Vegetable pricing. Cattle numbers were down by 5%, and the USA tariffs on Chinese trade have started to further drive up Seafood prices.

Market movers:

FISH & SEAFOOD

Fish and Seafood has seen inflation over the last quarter, attributed to the winter months, tougher fishing conditions and reduced quotas.

US processors continued to purchase Norwegian products, and the impact of new USA tariffs on Chinese trade could further drive-up prices.

Throughout the winter months, the whitefish market continued to experience significant pressure. Cod prices reached an all-time high, with no immediate signs of decline.

Haddock prices rose materially since September, and market pressures are expected to persist.

FRUIT & VEG

Fruit & Veg seasonality means the last quarter is usually the toughest from a price point. We import most of the fruit and veg over the winter months and poor weather in these regions further impacts availability & quality, driving inflation into the market.

There has been very heavy rain and flooding in parts of Spain, with the Murcia region being most affected. With the downpours continuing for more than a week, harvesting has been difficult which led to quality and availability issues across the category.

Increased labour costs and seasonality changes as we go into spring has also caused inflation.

MEAT

The Meat category has seen some volatility over the last quarter. Whilst Pork and Lamb have remained relatively stable, Beef prices got to an all-time high, with no signs of easing soon. Chicken has been impacted by outbreaks of Avian Influenza, coupled with reduced stocking densities, putting pressure on availability and pricing.

Beef inflation has continued throughout the winter months – the market is up 27% year on year (Feb 24 to Feb 25). There have been further increases since January 2025 and prices are at an all-time high. Demand is still strong, and total cattle numbers are forecast to be down 5% this year when compared with the previous year, which will mean prices may continue to rise.

DAIRY

The last quarter has seen increases across the Dairy category, with high demand for Cheddar, peak season for Cream and Avian Influenza affecting availability of Eggs, all putting pressure on pricing.

Bulk Cream prices fell over the Christmas week and the first couple of weeks of January although increased in the latter part. The average bulk Cream prices eased slightly but remained notably high over the winter months.

Cheddar prices softened at the back end of 2024 following the large spikes experienced last summer but are now spiking again due to a strengthening of interest amongst buyers. Prices were expected to be weaker given the current generous state of milk flows but in the end did not move much on average.

Prices have increased year on year following the wet weather in 2024 and cold weather experienced so far in 2025.

Next quarter outlook

MEAT

Demand on Beef is expected to remain high with total cattle availability reduced year on year. Beef inflation is continuing with the market up 31% year on year (March 24 to March 25). We expect the coming months to be challenging from both a pricing and availability perspective.

Chicken – Poor weather assists the spread of Avian Influenza across the UK and Europe. We have seen outbreaks across Europe (13 countries confirmed) and 1 instance in the UK. We anticipate this easing as we move towards warmer weather months as this should mean reduced cases of Avian Influenza.

FISH & SEAFOOD

Economic & Operational Pressures: Volatile foreign exchange rates are likely to continue to put pressure on frozen fish and seafood, in particular Cod, Haddock, Tuna and Prawns.

2025 quotas for Cod in the Barents sea have been agreed at a 20% reduction further increasing pressures in the whitefish market as we move into the next quarter.

DAIRY

As we approach the spring, farmers are looking to return cows to the fields in what is termed the ‘spring flush’ which typically results in increased Milk production. The current year on year increase is 1.6% which is equivalent to an additional 500,000 litres of milk produced.

FRUIT & VEG

With Spain still suffering from extreme flooding and rain, we expect to see quality and availability issues into the coming months.

However, over the next quarter we start to move towards more home-grown fruit and veg, which will help to alleviate some of the shortages and quality issues currently being seen.