Lucy
John
Clive
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.0% in the 12 months to January 2025, up from 2.5% in the 12 months to December 2024. Food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose by 3.3% in the year to January 2025, up by 2.0% to December 2024.
The Foodservice Price Index (FPI) report for December 2024 continues to indicate the worrying resurgence of inflationary pressures in the UK hospitality sector. There was a significant month-on-month increase of 1.0% and December’s results mark a departure from the previous two months, with all 10 categories experiencing month-on-month inflation.
MARKET MOVERS
Fish & Seafood
The Whitefish market continues to experience significant pressure…
Cod prices have reached an all-time high, with no immediate signs of decline. However, the market will need to stabilise, as processors cannot sustain the ongoing premium pricing.
Haddock prices have risen by nearly 20% since September, and market pressures are expected to persist. US processors continue to purchase Norwegian products, and the impact of Trump-era tariffs on Chinese trade could further drive-up prices.
Salmon prices are unusually returning to pre-Christmas levels ahead of schedule. However, this trend is unlikely to hold due to colder waters slowing growth rates and causing winter sores, thereby increasing the premium on high-quality salmon.
Top Tip #1: As a frozen alternative, Alaskan Pollock presents an excellent option, offering high quality at a lower price while maintaining superior sustainability with an MCS rating of 1-2.
Top Tip #2: For fresh alternatives, Coley may provide some price relief.
Top Tip #3: Given these factors, ChalkStream Trout remains a preferable alternative to farmed Norwegian salmon.
Meat
Beef inflation is continuing, the market is up 27% year-ON-year (Feb 24 to Feb 25). There has been 13% increase since January 2025 and prices are at an all-time high. Demand remains strong and total cattle numbers are forecast to be down 5% this year when compared with PY, which will mean prices may continue to rise.
With the new season almost upon us, we are seeing unstable prices on Lamb due to availability, prices have risen throughout January and February and currently have seem to settle but further seasonal increase are expected between now and Easter. The outlook for the next 12 month on Lamb availability is tight, the lamb crop is predicted to fall by 2% primarily
driven by a decline in breeding flock numbers. We don’t expect to see prices improve.
Pork production is anticipated to remain stable in 2025, with clean pig slaughter volumes reaching approximately 10.32 million head, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to 2024. Productivity improvements have been a driving force in the sector; the estimated cost of production has seen a slight decrease over the course of 2024, contributing to positive industry
sentiment.
Chicken and Turkey products have seen consistent increases on the cost of fresh and frozen for the last three to four weeks.
There have been several large outbreaks of Avian Flu with Hungary being affected far worse that Poland and Romania. Hungary are currently one of the biggest suppliers to the EU with Live birds and eggs. It has been estimated that Hungary has lost 60% plus of its breeder stocks if this is the case it is going to take months for this to rectify.
Newcastle Disease, a highly contagious virus causing respiratory and neurological issues in birds, has seen a steady rise in Poland, with nine new outbreaks recorded in December alone. Veterinary officials urge strict biosecurity measures to slow its spread. Poland and Romania are also seeing areas with Bird flu. Hence several of the big producers in Poland have cut their
days back in production. Over the last two weeks at least 10 production days across all sites in Poland and Romania have been lost, mainly down to not having enough live birds.
We are experiencing price increases on all cuts of chicken as the EU and UK all compete to secure produce with fillet and thigh meat taking the brunt.
Beef inflation is continuing, the market is up 27% year-ON-year (Feb 24 to Feb 25). There has been 13% increase since January 2025 and prices are at an all-time high. Demand remains strong and total cattle numbers are forecast to be down 5% this year when compared with PY, which will mean prices may continue to rise.
Top tip: We recommend substituting Beef in favour of more cost-effective proteins such as Chicken or Pork.
With the new season almost upon us, we are seeing unstable prices on Lamb due to availability, prices have risen throughout January and February and currently have seem to settle but further seasonal increase are expected between now and Easter. The outlook for the next 12 month on Lamb availability is tight, the lamb crop is predicted to fall by 2% primarily
driven by a decline in breeding flock numbers. We don’t expect to see prices improve.
Pork production is anticipated to remain stable in 2025, with clean pig slaughter volumes reaching approximately 10.32 million head, a slight decrease of 0.1% compared to 2024. Productivity improvements have been a driving force in the sector; the estimated cost of production has seen a slight decrease over the course of 2024, contributing to positive industry
sentiment.
Chicken and Turkey products have seen consistent increases on the cost of fresh and frozen for the last three to four weeks.
There have been several large outbreaks of Avian Flu with Hungary being affected far worse that Poland and Romania. Hungary are currently one of the biggest suppliers to the EU with Live birds and eggs. It has been estimated that Hungary has lost 60% plus of its breeder stocks if this is the case it is going to take months for this to rectify.
Newcastle Disease, a highly contagious virus causing respiratory and neurological issues in birds, has seen a steady rise in Poland, with nine new outbreaks recorded in December alone. Veterinary officials urge strict biosecurity measures to slow its spread. Poland and Romania are also seeing areas with Bird flu. Hence several of the big producers in Poland have cut their
days back in production. Over the last two weeks at least 10 production days across all sites in Poland and Romania have been lost, mainly down to not having enough live birds.
We are experiencing price increases on all cuts of chicken as the EU and UK all compete to secure produce with fillet and thigh meat taking the brunt.
Wheat
Despite the upcoming National Insurance rate increase, we are continuing to see favourable Wheat market conditions. With year-on-year price softening, we are well-positioned to offset some of the inflationary pressures and are actively using this to our advantage in supplier discussions now and will continue to do so over the next few months.
Fruit & Veg
The cold weather experienced in recent weeks has slowed the growth of some crops and with more cold temperatures forecasted for the UK in the coming weeks, so there may be further impacts on the harvest. Cauliflower, Savoy and Cavolo Nero have been most affected market-wide, with impacts to quality.
Core line vegetables such as Broccoli, Swede and Parsnips are all in good supply and represent good value on any menu.
The European season is nearing its end, and it has been one of the worst on record, primarily due to early season frosts. As a result, there is a limited supply of small-sized fruit. Granny Smith apples are currently the most affected variety. The South African season will begin in April, at which point we expect conditions to improve.
This season we expect shortages of Salad Potatoes due to the low carryover stock from last season. Large Bakers are also anticipated to be in very short supply, due to the lack of time they had to grow following late planting. We expect the problems to carry into next year due to the shortage of seed potato available for planting in the early part of this year.
Spanish Strawberries will continue to arrive throughout the month with Dutch also becoming available and we may even see UK product sneaking in by late month.
Dairy
Bulk Cream prices fell over the Christmas week and the first couple of weeks of January although increased in the latter part. The average bulk cream prices eased by 13% but remain notably high for this time of year.
As we approach the spring, farmers are looking to return cows to the fields in what is termed the ‘spring flush’ which typically results in increased Milk production. Current year-on-year changes are 1.6% which is equivalent to an additional 500,000 litres of milk produced. However, as cream prices remain high this will have a knock-on effect on milk prices.
Cheddar cheese prices softened at the back end of 2024 following the large spikes experienced last summer but are now again spiking upwards due to a strengthening of interest amongst buyers. Prices were expected to be weaker given the current generous state of milk flows but in the end did not move much on average.
Market prices have increased c. 13% year-on-year following the wet weather in 2024 and the cold weather experienced so far in 2025.
UK KEY MARKET MOVERS (CPI)
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) is a key measure of inflation in the UK. Movements in CPI give a high-level overview of the key categories experiencing inflation. Below is a monthly snapshot of the top food commodity price inflation movements impacting the UK. The data is from Office for National Statistics (ONS).
Percentage change over 12 months:
FINAL WORD
Regency continue to proactively mitigate availability issues and supply risk, putting solutions in place to reduce impact, such as product switches and recipe re-engineering.
When analysing the affects that inflation has on your businesses purchasing, it’s important to understand that inflation affects not only the price of goods, but also the quality and availability – this is something that our team of procurement experts can assess in detail, to ensure our members are always achieving the best outcomes in all areas. To find out more about ways in which we can help save your business time and money, get in touch.
